Thoughtful-Addiction
0x5c2cb3ac0cfe53741d0fdd3b0b10f384bbd5a94c
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-897.62
Realised
$-75.95
Win rate
3%
193 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 7?
417 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
150 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 14?
145 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
140 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 30?
126 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
125 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
122 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
110 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
109 shares @ 20.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-22.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET$1.51Aug 18, 07:18 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET$1.31Aug 18, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET$5.23Aug 18, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET$1.05Aug 18, 07:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$1.07Aug 18, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$1.06Aug 18, 07:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$0.64Aug 18, 07:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$2.81Aug 18, 07:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$5.17Aug 18, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET$5.23Aug 18, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$3.05Aug 18, 06:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 06:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 06:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$3.60Aug 18, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$1.06Aug 18, 06:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$3.45Aug 18, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$1.05Aug 18, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$1.05Aug 18, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 06:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 193 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
193 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $2.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 03:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 07:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 193 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.