Bogus-Couch
0x5c4fdcb4455492ae7aea00f3483a7751098981cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$14.62
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$135.85
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
US recession by end of 2026?
122 shares @ 27.1¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$14.62
$-18.36
- YES
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?
15802 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-447.45
- YES
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February?
5672 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-99.99
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
2377 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-112.33
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
2199 shares @ 39.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-867.33
- YES
Will Wales win?
2016 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-74.13
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?
2000 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-92.72
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?
932 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-64.94
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?
801 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-72.10
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?
726 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-32.83
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?$34.08Jun 19, 09:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?$34.40Jun 17, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?$13.76Jun 12, 14:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI announce bankruptcy before 2027?$13.76Jun 12, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?$116.78Apr 18, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS recession by end of 2026?$13.73Mar 26, 11:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$13.74Mar 26, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$11.20Mar 25, 11:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$11.20Mar 25, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$867.33Mar 22, 20:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?$132.92Mar 21, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$292.88Mar 21, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$441.53Mar 21, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$337.64Mar 18, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$156.90Mar 10, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?$1.12Mar 10, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?$63.00Mar 10, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$39.77Mar 10, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$74.96Mar 10, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13?$1.94Mar 10, 09:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
11/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $60.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 7, 15:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 09:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.