Fabulous-Eponym
0x5ca71d4db029c5454210a858c6d98bca28668195
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$304.91
Total PnL
$-25.6K
Realised
$-4.3K
Win rate
25%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
500 shares @ 31.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$117.50
$-37.50
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
1001 shares @ 7.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.05
$-15.44
- YES
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
1000 shares @ 17.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.50
$-125.18
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1163 shares @ 9.5¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.12
$-70.44
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
872 shares @ 2.8¢·now 2.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$25.71
$1.28
- YES
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
867 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.67
$-4.86
- YES
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
222 shares @ 3.9¢·now 3.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$7.56
$-1.22
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
647 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.59
$-27.84
- YES
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.30
$0.30
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.94
$0.44
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?$66.82Jul 22, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?$11.18Jul 22, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$0.50Jul 21, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?$0.04Jul 21, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?$1.95Jul 21, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.95Jul 21, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$1.20Jul 21, 20:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$0.50Jul 21, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$4.44Jul 21, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$4.34Jul 21, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$13.54Jul 21, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?$0.60Jul 21, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$0.10Jul 21, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$0.84Jul 21, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$5.00Jul 21, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$5.33Jul 21, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$7.33Jul 20, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$8.40Jul 20, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$6.61Jul 20, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$0.74Jul 20, 15:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $10.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 25, 02:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 12:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.