Jaded-Confidentiality
0x5d5a68ba12cf0264ea2dab626d99abb9a71c4289
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-13.56
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
448 shares @ 9.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$342.89
$302.55
- NO
Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?
213 shares @ 93.9¢·now 89.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$191.05
$-8.87
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
491 shares @ 65.8¢·now 18.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$90.74
$-231.82
- NO
Will the Save Romania Union (USR) be included in the next Romanian government?
98 shares @ 71.9¢·now 66.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$65.12
$-5.43
- NO
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?
65 shares @ 86.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$51.85
$-3.90
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
139 shares @ 43.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.85
$-11.81
- NO
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
122 shares @ 36.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.19
$1.22
- RE.ARISE
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs No Hoodwink (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B
112 shares @ 43.9¢·now 39.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$44.17
$-4.92
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
39 shares @ 61.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$35.71
$11.90
- YES
Will NIP be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?
848 shares @ 46.6¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.06
$-361.62
Recent activity
- REDEEMDetroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5$0.00Aug 5, 04:28 UTC
- REDEEMNational Bank Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Yannick Hanfmann$7.36Aug 5, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYDetroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5$1.09Aug 5, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)$0.86Aug 5, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYToronto Tempo vs. Golden State Valkyries$1.09Aug 5, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)$1.09Aug 5, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)$1.09Aug 5, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)$1.09Aug 5, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)$1.09Aug 5, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)$1.09Aug 5, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)$1.09Aug 5, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYNational Bank Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Yannick Hanfmann$1.10Aug 5, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)$1.09Aug 5, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYToronto Tempo vs. Golden State Valkyries$1.16Aug 5, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYToronto Tempo vs. Golden State Valkyries$1.09Aug 5, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)$0.01Aug 5, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNational Bank Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Yannick Hanfmann$5.69Aug 5, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5)$1.10Aug 5, 03:21 UTC
- REDEEMSan Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5$175.19Aug 5, 03:10 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$91.76Aug 5, 02:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $56.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 13:14 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 04:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.