0x5dd1e6144254f903d6b0dbc730b1d09eb2035e53
0x5dd1e6144254f903d6b0dbc730b1d09eb2035e53
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$49.47
Total PnL
$-31.11
Realised
$5.18
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 20?
9 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$9.38
$4.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 20?
8 shares @ 60.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$8.16
$3.27
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 20?
6 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$6.34
$1.39
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on April 21?
6 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$6.26
$1.32
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 19?
6 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$6.04
$1.27
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
3 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$2.90
$0.90
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
2 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$2.35
$0.35
- YES
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
2 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$2.04
$0.05
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$2.00
$0.00
- NO
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$2.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$2.00Apr 20, 14:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$1.97Apr 20, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$2.00Apr 20, 14:23 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$2.00Apr 20, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$2.00Apr 20, 14:15 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$2.09Apr 20, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$2.00Apr 20, 13:48 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$2.00Apr 20, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$1.99Apr 20, 13:44 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$2.02Apr 20, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$2.00Apr 20, 13:15 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.92Apr 20, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$2.00Apr 20, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$2.00Apr 20, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$2.03Apr 20, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$1.93Apr 20, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$2.00Apr 20, 12:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$1.99Apr 20, 12:40 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$4.00Apr 20, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$2.00Apr 20, 12:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 19, 22:01 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 20, 14:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.