0x5e5317facb2e36adaeb1a73bf3261461b5fc922d
0x5e5317facb2e36adaeb1a73bf3261461b5fc922d
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-345.06
Realised
$-18.32
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
494 shares @ 44.5¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$214.86
$-5.14
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
271 shares @ 44.3¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$117.78
$-2.22
- YES
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
407 shares @ 24.6¢·now 26.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$105.89
$5.89
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
231 shares @ 43.3¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$100.35
$0.35
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
200 shares @ 49.9¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$99.15
$-0.85
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
251 shares @ 19.9¢·now 22.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$55.14
$5.14
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
208 shares @ 24.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$48.96
$-1.04
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
501 shares @ 10.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$47.61
$-2.39
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
252 shares @ 19.9¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$42.80
$-7.20
- YES
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
388 shares @ 12.9¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$36.90
$-13.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLHouston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5$39.17Jul 29, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?$20.45Jul 29, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?$20.52Jul 29, 04:34 UTC
- REDEEMBoston Red Sox vs. Athletics$45.45Jul 29, 04:30 UTC
- REDEEMKansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5$35.71Jul 29, 02:32 UTC
- REDEEMPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5$37.74Jul 29, 01:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants$20.58Jul 28, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. Athletics$20.56Jul 28, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox$20.52Jul 28, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYHouston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5$20.49Jul 28, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals$20.51Jul 28, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5$20.44Jul 28, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYToronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5$20.52Jul 28, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5$20.47Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5$20.45Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBaltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5$20.46Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLHouston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels$25.74Jul 28, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYHouston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels$5.20Jul 28, 04:09 UTC
- TRADESELLMilwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants$44.39Jul 28, 04:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $21.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 05:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 04:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.