Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

1. 1

   Down 1pp over 24h

   Now 26¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 4594h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $12.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.