Quirky-Hydrolyse
0x5ea9a21db9de280fdee5fcf76af648625b021a13
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$60.09
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-176.50
Win rate
6%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
15 shares @ 43.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.56
$6.97
- NO
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
13 shares @ 76.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.84
$3.01
- NO
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
13 shares @ 77.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.33
$2.48
- NO
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
11 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.14
$0.17
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
12 shares @ 51.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.11
$-0.88
- YES
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series?
714 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$3.93
$-1.07
- YES
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?
625 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.19
$-2.81
- YES
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-01?
16240 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-16.24
- YES
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-01?
15520 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-15.52
- JAZZ
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz
15000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
31 closed markets, 6% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $5.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.