0x5f0e97101e55624fe29148459834ac5389522c88
0x5f0e97101e55624fe29148459834ac5389522c88
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$16.96
Realised
$-0.07
Win rate
56%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
117 shares @ 88.2¢·now 98.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$115.10
$11.77
- YES
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
105 shares @ 94.9¢·now 95.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$101.07
$1.07
- NO
Trump out as President by August 31?
101 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$100.16
$0.16
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
107 shares @ 93.4¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.09
$0.08
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
93 shares @ 97.5¢·now 97.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$90.69
$0.28
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
98 shares @ 50.0¢·now 78.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$76.72
$27.76
- NO
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?
55 shares @ 97.6¢·now 97.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$54.01
$0.12
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
57 shares @ 93.9¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$52.78
$-0.50
- NO
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?
53 shares @ 94.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.59
$0.53
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
49 shares @ 87.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.66
$3.47
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$15.19Aug 10, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$15.17Aug 10, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?$1.52Aug 10, 08:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,100 August 3-9?$6.50Aug 10, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?$1.37Aug 10, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.35Aug 10, 01:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 10, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.28Aug 10, 00:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?$4.01Aug 9, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?$2.67Aug 9, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?$0.63Aug 9, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.57Aug 9, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$3.43Aug 9, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$6.13Aug 9, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLChina x Japan military clash before 2027?$9.64Aug 9, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?$1.33Aug 9, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $90 in August?$1.09Aug 9, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?$1.17Aug 9, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$5.00Aug 9, 10:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 8, 08:57 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 09:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.