Loading shell…
OtherExpires Sep 30, 2026

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Probability

14¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$4.3K

Liquidity

$32.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 20:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:35
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 14¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 3778h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 3778.4h

    LOW
  • 13:35Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 3778h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventWill the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Sep 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket