0x5f4080f9355764b32736f82d43e7f131aaf26e9e
0x5f4080f9355764b32736f82d43e7f131aaf26e9e
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$43.46
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-39.61
Win rate
39%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
22 shares @ 55.6¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.25
$7.02
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
23 shares @ 41.2¢·now 41.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$9.58
$0.11
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
11 shares @ 60.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.61
$2.03
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
11 shares @ 54.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$6.02
$-0.06
- YES
Will Jynxzi & Joe Bart win Jynxzi's Rocket League tournament?
160 shares @ 61.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-97.48
- NO
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?
141 shares @ 84.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-118.71
- NO
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
94 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-30.00
- NO
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
83 shares @ 77.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-63.98
- NO
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?
77 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
39% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $1.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.