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OtherExpires Dec 31, 2026

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Probability

42¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-2.0pp

24h Vol

$942.55

Liquidity

$51.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 10:00Apr 25, 2026, 09:13
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5990.8h

    LOW
  • 09:14Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5991h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 09:13Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets
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