Experienced-Glockenspiel
0x60cd651c1d9dcf154cbb70567b2b795298177ed9
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$14.58
Total PnL
$-115.39
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
74 shares @ 89.2¢·now 19.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$14.58
$-51.28
- YES
Will Taylor Swift say "Tour" 2+ times during Tonight Show on October 6?
18 shares @ 89.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 6, 2025$0.00
$-16.02
- NO
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?
18 shares @ 66.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-11.88
- NO
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7?
12 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 7, 2025$0.00
$-8.04
- YES
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?
8 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-4.56
- NO
Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
8 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-4.08
- YES
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-05?
8 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 5, 2025$0.00
$-4.96
- NO
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
8 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-6.32
- YES
Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
7 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025$0.00
$-2.59
- NO
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
7 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025$0.00
$-3.71
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYOpensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?$65.87Jan 8, 12:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?$8.00Dec 30, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump say "dictator" during Ukraine President events on December 28?$6.72Dec 28, 11:22 UTC
- REDEEMMavericks vs. Thunder$5.00Dec 28, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYMavericks vs. Thunder$4.45Dec 5, 14:08 UTC
- REDEEMThunder vs. Warriors$7.00Dec 5, 14:07 UTC
- REDEEMPacers vs. Pistons$7.00Nov 29, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYThunder vs. Warriors$5.74Nov 29, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYPacers vs. Pistons$5.81Nov 17, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMWarriors vs. Thunder$12.00Nov 17, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWarriors vs. Thunder$8.76Nov 11, 18:06 UTC
- REDEEM76ers vs. Cavaliers$18.00Nov 11, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUY76ers vs. Cavaliers$13.86Nov 5, 17:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?$1.43Nov 5, 17:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Barcelona win on 2025-10-18?$5.00Nov 5, 17:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?$5.00Nov 5, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?$11.88Oct 27, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?$2.59Oct 16, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 6 and 8 seconds?$0.16Oct 16, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 8 and 10 seconds?$0.17Oct 16, 14:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $10.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 19, 20:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 8, 12:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.