Complete-Novel
0x60fd421fb445029d7c8ce20a6a86e0bb364589a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$255.42
Total PnL
$-251.89
Realised
$27.87
Win rate
60%
172 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
296 shares @ 9.6¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$37.42
$9.02
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
236 shares @ 7.7¢·now 8.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$20.41
$2.22
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
200 shares @ 4.9¢·now 9.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$18.40
$8.60
- YES
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
370 shares @ 4.9¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.67
$-1.56
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
200 shares @ 10.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 4.4¢·now 5.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.30
$2.50
- YES
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
200 shares @ 7.9¢·now 5.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$9.90
$-5.90
- YES
US military draft authorized in 2026?
200 shares @ 7.0¢·now 4.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.70
$-4.30
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
200 shares @ 6.2¢·now 3.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.50
$-4.93
- YES
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
312 shares @ 1.6¢·now 2.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.02
$2.03
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 172 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
172 closed markets, 60% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $4.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 00:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 172 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.