Weekly-Rail-Honey
0x610e690c10fc9d9dfe0cdaf54f6502894a55b852
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$109.20
Total PnL
$-53.06
Realised
$129.35
Win rate
49%
128 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will 160 to 189 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?
53 shares @ 3.5¢·now 24.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$12.94
$11.10
- YES
Will Ionuț Dumitru be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
1181 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.09
$-0.99
- YES
Will 130 to 159 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?
20 shares @ 1.9¢·now 32.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$6.39
$6.01
- YES
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?
53 shares @ 3.9¢·now 11.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.23
$4.15
- YES
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
417 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.04
$2.48
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15?
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$5.13
$4.10
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15?
5 shares @ 33.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$5.00
$3.35
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 15?
5 shares @ 30.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$4.94
$3.43
- NO
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30?
7 shares @ 41.2¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.62
$1.78
- NO
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by December 31?
5 shares @ 76.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.33
$0.53
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$2.30Jul 29, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$0.35Jul 29, 05:47 UTC
- TRADESELLAI bubble burst in 2026?$1.23Jul 29, 03:25 UTC
- TRADESELLAI bubble burst in 2026?$3.82Jul 29, 02:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$0.16Jul 28, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 100 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?$0.74Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 100 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?$0.17Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$0.42Jul 28, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$0.59Jul 28, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?$2.15Jul 28, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 160 to 189 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?$0.30Jul 28, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?$1.25Jul 28, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 160 to 189 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?$0.15Jul 28, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLAI bubble burst in 2026?$0.25Jul 28, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLAI bubble burst in 2026?$0.25Jul 28, 19:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the TX-10 House seat?$1.31Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLAI bubble burst in 2026?$0.03Jul 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLAI bubble burst in 2026?$0.03Jul 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLAI bubble burst in 2026?$0.06Jul 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill San Marino win Junior Eurovision 2026?$0.05Jul 28, 16:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
49% win rate over 128 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
128 closed markets, 49% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 00:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 06:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 128 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.