Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?
Probability
18¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+4.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$474.38
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 18¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $474 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6010.2h
- 13:44SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 18¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 14¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 14¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 14¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 14¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 14¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 14¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 13¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 18¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Cristiano Ronaldo officially announces his retirement from club soccer by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To resolve "Yes", the announcement must clearly state that Ronaldo is retiring from club-level professional soccer. The announcement must come from Ronaldo himself or his official representatives. Retirement from international soccer alone will not qualify. The retirement must be intended to take effect immediately or prior to the start of the next club season following the announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Cristiano Ronaldo; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).