0x611f1c63c65c078ed7a2c1fa6a84797bd5817023
0x611f1c63c65c078ed7a2c1fa6a84797bd5817023
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$5.59
Total PnL
$-7.44
Realised
$-1.32
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 8?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$1.51
$0.53
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.19
$0.19
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
1 shares @ 87.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$1.15
$0.15
- NO
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.14
$0.14
- NO
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?
1 shares @ 78.2¢·now 47.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.60
$-0.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on April 9?
69 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 9?
24 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 8?
12 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 11?
8 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 10?
3 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.96
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$0.00Apr 8, 22:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 8?$0.00Apr 8, 22:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 8?$0.00Apr 8, 22:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on April 9?$0.00Apr 8, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on April 11?$1.00Apr 8, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 9?$1.00Apr 8, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 8?$1.00Apr 7, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 9?$1.00Apr 7, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 11?$1.00Apr 7, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 8?$1.00Apr 7, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on April 9?$1.00Apr 7, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 10?$1.00Apr 7, 13:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$0.00Apr 7, 02:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$0.00Apr 7, 02:35 UTC
- REDEEMTotal Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 2?$1.00Apr 7, 02:26 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Acend vs CarritoSpain (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D$1.10Apr 7, 02:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026?$1.14Apr 7, 02:26 UTC
- REDEEMHouthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?$1.17Apr 7, 02:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 4?$1.26Apr 7, 02:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET$0.00Apr 7, 02:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $0.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 29, 16:16 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 8, 22:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.