Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?
Probability
56¢
1h
-1.4pp
24h
+9.6pp
24h Vol
$79.75
Liquidity
$18.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+32.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 56¢; -1.4pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 7.2¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5982.2h
- 17:46SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+8.7pp over the last 24h, now 55¢.
Biggest hourly move: +29.9pp at 09:00 (to 53¢).
Show all 33 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +28.1pp → 55¢
- 15:00 · +28.0pp → 55¢
- 14:00 · +26.5pp → 53¢
- 12:00 · +25.9pp → 53¢
- 11:00 · +25.6pp → 52¢
- 09:00 · +29.9pp → 53¢
- 08:00 · +29.4pp → 52¢
- 06:00 · +29.5pp → 52¢
- 05:00 · +29.5pp → 52¢
- 03:00 · +25.5pp → 48¢
- 02:00 · +26.6pp → 50¢
- 00:00 · +25.0pp → 48¢
- 23:00 · +25.7pp → 49¢
- 21:00 · +28.8pp → 52¢
- 20:00 · +29.8pp → 53¢
- 18:00 · +23.8pp → 47¢
- 1d ago · +27.5pp → 50¢
- 1d ago · +25.9pp → 49¢
- 1d ago · +25.5pp → 48¢
- 1d ago · +27.9pp → 51¢
- 1d ago · +26.0pp → 49¢
- 1d ago · +23.4pp → 46¢
- 1d ago · +27.8pp → 51¢
- 2d ago · +22.4pp → 45¢
- 2d ago · +21.0pp → 44¢
- 2d ago · +6.2pp → 29¢
- 2d ago · +16.7pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +16.1pp → 39¢
- 2d ago · +17.2pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +14.2pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · +14.8pp → 38¢
- 2d ago · +19.5pp → 42¢
- 2d ago · +3.6pp → 27¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.