Competent-Rubbish
0x6130c50264d617cf6640e5196d4f4c31228f1392
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$497.34
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$25.31
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July?
509 shares @ 11.8¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$354.04
$294.04
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
122 shares @ 81.8¢·now 74.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$90.59
$-9.41
- YES
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in July?
294 shares @ 34.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$42.80
$-57.20
- YES
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in June?
19 shares @ 54.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$9.91
$-0.09
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
9025 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-313.27
- YES
Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in September?
1649 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in September?
1577 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?
1230 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-110.00
- YES
Will the US add between 100k and 125k jobs in September?
798 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?
595 shares @ 14.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-84.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$51.28Jul 22, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$50.96Jul 22, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$100.91Jul 21, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$50.72Jul 21, 11:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$51.46Jul 19, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in June?$10.23Jul 19, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$26.16Jul 19, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$231.19Jul 18, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$50.56Jul 17, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July?$5.20Jul 17, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July?$5.20Jul 17, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in July?$103.30Jul 17, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July?$52.23Jul 17, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$100.00Jul 16, 20:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$44.68Jul 15, 14:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?$8.76Jul 14, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?$14.00Jul 14, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?$1.27Jul 14, 11:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$43.32Jul 14, 10:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$41.86Jul 14, 05:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $51.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 17:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 07:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.