Definite-Referendum
0x616b8e1d19f235ca67dc0738e0635b07ccf94070
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$262.75
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
665 shares @ 45.1¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$262.75
$-37.25
- YES
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025?
750 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2025$0.00
$-90.00
- NO
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $67m?
618 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 8, 2025$0.00
$-9.28
- YES
Will anyone say "Recession" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call?
479 shares @ 25.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2025$0.00
$-120.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Kurd" or "Kurdish" during events with Turkish president on September 25?
448 shares @ 33.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 25, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
- NO
Will the government shutdown end November 13?
447 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-28.58
- YES
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Assembly on September 23?
389 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 23, 2025$0.00
$-14.22
- NO
Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times during remarks in NC on September 24?
374 shares @ 37.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 24, 2025$0.00
$-139.13
- NO
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?
332 shares @ 45.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
- NO
Will anyone say "Squid Game" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call?
286 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?$311.53Jun 4, 10:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?$695.82Jun 3, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June?$525.39Jun 2, 15:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?$255.89Feb 14, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?$534.39Feb 11, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation increase by 3.0% in November?$115.33Dec 18, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation increase by 3.0% in November?$75.42Dec 18, 13:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Joe" or "Biden 7+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?$60.85Dec 9, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Joe" or "Biden 7+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?$61.77Dec 9, 15:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Maduro" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?$0.00Dec 3, 11:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 7+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?$34.31Dec 2, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 7+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?$24.36Dec 2, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Maduro" during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?$50.00Dec 2, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown end November 13?$28.58Nov 13, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown end November 12?$125.71Nov 12, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?$66.49Nov 10, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump say "Hottest" during Syria President events on November 10?$60.00Nov 10, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during Australia PM events on October 20?$28.71Oct 20, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?$100.00Oct 20, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netanyahu say "Iran" 25+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?$101.75Sep 26, 12:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $122.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 16:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 10:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".