Wet-Event
0x62365f754d4aa7dc537f997f23bb5dd9a9e36881
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$-856.57
Realised
$-46.15
Win rate
33%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will "World Cup" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?
60 shares @ 35.5¢·now 72.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$43.20
$21.90
- NO
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" during cabinet meeting?
40 shares @ 82.5¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$29.20
$-3.80
- NO
Will Microsoft say "Layoff / Job Cut" during earnings call?
30 shares @ 90.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$26.40
$-0.60
- NO
Will Amazon say "Iran" during earnings call?
30 shares @ 87.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$24.15
$-1.95
- NO
Will anyone say "Moon" during Big Brother E12?
30 shares @ 63.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$23.99
$5.10
- NO
Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch?
40 shares @ 28.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$23.40
$12.20
- NO
Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?
40 shares @ 74.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2026$22.40
$-7.20
- NO
Will Trump post "Football" on Truth Social this week?
30 shares @ 78.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$22.05
$-1.35
- U 1.5
Will DetonatioN FocusMe Win More than 1.5 Matches in VCT 2026 Pacific Stage 2
37 shares @ 60.4¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$20.97
$-1.65
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 29?
40 shares @ 62.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$20.00
$-4.80
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $590 Week of July 27 2026?$20.00Jul 28, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Veto" during Big Brother E11?$4.41Jul 28, 15:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $123 Week of July 27 2026?$20.00Jul 28, 15:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $810 Week of July 27 2026?$20.00Jul 28, 15:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $72.50 Week of July 27 2026?$20.00Jul 28, 15:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $90 Week of July 27 2026?$20.00Jul 28, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $308 Week of July 27 2026?$0.49Jul 28, 15:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Stock Market" during Fox & Friends appearance?$20.00Jul 28, 15:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Hell" during Fox & Friends appearance?$20.00Jul 28, 15:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "COVID" during Fox & Friends appearance?$20.00Jul 28, 15:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill PayPal say "Stablecoin" or "Stable Coin" during earnings call?$30.00Jul 28, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $292.50 Week of July 27 2026?$7.40Jul 28, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Toilet" during Big Brother E12?$25.50Jul 28, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $80 in July?$4.20Jul 28, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Mindset" during Big Brother E12?$22.20Jul 28, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Camera" during Big Brother E11?$12.90Jul 28, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Tariff" during earnings call?$18.60Jul 28, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Prime Day" during earnings call?$2.64Jul 28, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "Pillow" during Big Brother E12?$26.10Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 29?$1.29Jul 28, 14:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $9.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 15:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.