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OtherExpires Dec 18, 2026

Mark Ruffalo as Hulk?

Probability

46¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-5.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$523.80

Probability (last 7 days)

+5.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:07
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 6pp over 24h

    Now 46¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5675h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 52.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5674.9h

    LOW
  • 13:07Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5675h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:07Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 19:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 52¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.5pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 23.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 29.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 29.5pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 29.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 29.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 29.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 29.5pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 27.0pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 27.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 27.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 27.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December, 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve upon announcement of casting, regardless of if the film is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise fails to be released. If no casting is announced, this market will resolve upon footage of the domestic theatrical cut of the film. If multiple people are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list for the relevant character will be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. If no casting is announced and Avengers: Doomsday is definitively cancelled or fails to be released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 18, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (52.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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