Agitated-Freighter
0x624b834e293feca0060f9250d66358416e3e56f8
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
133
Open notional
$130.34
Total PnL
$15.78
Realised
$8.94
Win rate
46%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 133- NO
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
5 shares @ 24.1¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.65
$3.44
- YES
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
8 shares @ 53.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.04
$0.04
- NO
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
9 shares @ 44.1¢·now 41.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$3.84
$-0.29
- NO
Will Portugal finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
7 shares @ 52.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$3.79
$0.17
- YES
Will Adidas be the shirt manufacturer of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Champion?
8 shares @ 44.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.70
$0.27
- YES
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
15 shares @ 21.0¢·now 23.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.42
$0.29
- NO
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
8 shares @ 42.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.34
$0.12
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
8 shares @ 39.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.14
$0.04
- YES
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
8 shares @ 31.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.04
$0.53
- YES
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?
8 shares @ 35.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.04
$0.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5.6 not be released before August 2026?$0.29Jun 25, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$3.23Jun 25, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?$3.41Jun 25, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5.6 not be released before August 2026?$0.89Jun 25, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 3, 2026?$0.05Jun 25, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.9% in June?$0.16Jun 25, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.9% in June?$1.09Jun 25, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$0.10Jun 25, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$3.10Jun 25, 01:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$0.05Jun 25, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026?$0.03Jun 25, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026?$0.03Jun 25, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$0.05Jun 25, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026?$0.03Jun 25, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026?$0.03Jun 25, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026?$0.03Jun 25, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$0.05Jun 25, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$0.05Jun 25, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$0.05Jun 25, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$0.05Jun 25, 01:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
52 closed markets, 46% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $0.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 00:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 01:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.