Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$6.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $6.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5983.0h
- 16:57SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:57PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 8¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 8¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 8¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 9¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 9¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Department of the treasuryOfficial government sourceextracted · highhome.treasury.gov
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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