0x6260b1b34e684120bafd77d78f041e386d982974
0x6260b1b34e684120bafd77d78f041e386d982974
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$63.35
Total PnL
$-60.44
Realised
$-2.22
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
30 shares @ 50.7¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$26.20
$11.20
- NO
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?
18 shares @ 55.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$18.18
$8.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 84°F or higher on April 18?
5 shares @ 80.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$4.79
$0.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 18?
4 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$4.24
$0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on April 20?
4 shares @ 88.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$3.62
$0.42
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 18?
2 shares @ 84.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$2.36
$0.38
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 18?
2 shares @ 90.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$2.21
$0.22
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$1.76
$0.16
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
371 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.71
- NO
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?
143 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?$7.57May 23, 06:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?$13.88May 18, 04:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?$5.68May 15, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in May?$5.11May 14, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?$5.00May 14, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81$5.00May 14, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81$10.00May 14, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?$5.00May 14, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?$5.00May 14, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?$5.00May 14, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $80 in May?$6.92May 14, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?$9.98May 14, 13:56 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$4.35May 1, 00:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20?$0.00Apr 27, 17:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 18?$0.00Apr 27, 17:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 18?$0.00Apr 27, 17:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on April 20?$0.00Apr 27, 17:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 18?$0.00Apr 27, 17:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Houston be 84°F or higher on April 18?$0.00Apr 27, 17:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 20?$0.00Apr 27, 16:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $6.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 25, 10:25 UTC
- Last active
- May 23, 06:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.