CryptoExpires Jan 1, 2027

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81

Probability

63¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$1.1K

Liquidity

$11.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

+15.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 20:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:43
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $11.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6010.3h

    LOW
  • 18:43Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 63¢.

Biggest hourly move: +13.0pp at 2d ago (to 62¢).

Show all 11 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 21:00 · +3.0pp → 63¢
  • 1d ago · +3.5pp → 62¢
  • 1d ago · +4.0pp → 63¢
  • 1d ago · +4.5pp → 63¢
  • 2d ago · -3.5pp → 62¢
  • 2d ago · +6.5pp → 61¢
  • 2d ago · +11.5pp → 61¢
  • 2d ago · +12.5pp → 61¢
  • 2d ago · +12.5pp → 61¢
  • 2d ago · +12.0pp → 61¢
  • 2d ago · +13.0pp → 62¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same eventWill MicroStrategy announce holding ___ BTC by December 31, 2026?
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated or Michael Saylor officially announce that the company’s total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings. For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
strategy.comSource not classifiedextracted · low
strategy.com
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket