Lumpy-Tin
0x62ad81eddc36cc1e26234c908a69277bce9779fc
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$659.12
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$1.4K
Win rate
74%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in more than fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
1647 shares @ 16.7¢·now 16.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$270.11
$-4.39
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
1442 shares @ 16.7¢·now 16.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$235.03
$-5.29
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
1173 shares @ 16.7¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$58.65
$-136.85
- YES
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1700.00 and 1799.99 at the end of December 2026?
159 shares @ 16.7¢·now 17.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.23
$1.80
- YES
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1600.00 at the end of December 2026?
77 shares @ 16.7¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.25
$11.42
- YES
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
162 shares @ 0.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$13.74
$13.71
- YES
Will Tom Cotton be the next Senate Majority Leader?
163 shares @ 1.6¢·now 5.9¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$9.70
$7.16
- YES
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
162 shares @ 0.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$8.48
$8.46
- YES
Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1800.00 and 1899.99 at the end of December 2026?
111 shares @ 16.7¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.71
$-13.76
- YES
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
162 shares @ 0.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.70
$1.67
Recent activity
- CONVERSIONHow many dissent at the July Fed meeting?$4.00Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no one dissent the July Fed decision?$3.89Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$0.60Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$0.55Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?$3.00Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- MERGEWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 10–15 seconds by July 31, 2026?$5.00Jul 28, 16:08 UTC
- CONVERSIONHow long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?$10.00Jul 28, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 10–15 seconds by July 31, 2026?$4.19Jul 28, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds by July 31, 2026?$4.28Jul 28, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?$2.88Jul 28, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 2–6 seconds by July 31, 2026?$4.90Jul 28, 16:07 UTC
- MERGEWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last at least 15 seconds by July 31, 2026?$10.00Jul 28, 15:52 UTC
- MERGEWill Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?$10.00Jul 28, 15:52 UTC
- CONVERSIONHow long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?$12.00Jul 28, 15:52 UTC
- CONVERSIONHow long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?$24.00Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last at least 15 seconds by July 31, 2026?$9.84Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 10–15 seconds by July 31, 2026?$8.47Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 2–6 seconds by July 31, 2026?$5.66Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds by July 31, 2026?$8.47Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu handshake last less than 2 seconds by July 31, 2026?$9.99Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
74% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
31 closed markets, 74% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $7.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 16:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 18:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.