Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1600.00 at the end of December 2026?
Probability
58¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$469.46
Probability (last 7 days)
+22.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 28.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5987.0h
- 12:57SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 57¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 55¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 54¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 58¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 62¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 50¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 57¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 59¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 58¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 57¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 57¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 60¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 60¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 57¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 57¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 51¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 62¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.5pp
to 55¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.0pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.0pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 56¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 58¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 57¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (28.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).