Loading shell…
OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1600.00 at the end of December 2026?

Probability

58¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$469.46

Probability (last 7 days)

+22.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 12:57
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 28.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5987.0h

    LOW
  • 12:57Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 12.5pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 17.0pp

    to 62¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 16.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 14.0pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 13.5pp

    to 60¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 14.5pp

    to 60¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 15.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 23.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 25.0pp

    to 62¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 29.0pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 22.5pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 28.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/). If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date. The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (28.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).