Ultimate-Shootdown
0x62f8a54a00406b33a87ba4f3b298891bea17f1cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
140
Open notional
$0.87
Total PnL
$-233.21
Realised
$5.54
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 140- YES
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
4 shares @ 45.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.47
$-1.53
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
11 shares @ 8.9¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.39
$-0.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 29?
21 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.01
$-0.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 29?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.01
$-0.99
- YES
Will Alex Vanopslagh be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
1508 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-7.06
- YES
Will Mona Juul be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
750 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
127 shares @ 12.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-15.76
- YES
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
70 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
53 shares @ 28.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 28?$2.00Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?$1.72Jul 28, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 29?$1.05Jul 27, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 29?$1.05Jul 27, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 28?$1.02Jul 27, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 28?$1.02Jul 27, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 28?$1.04Jul 27, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 28?$1.02Jul 27, 14:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 27?$3.12Jul 27, 14:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 27?$3.44Jul 27, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C or higher on July 26?$3.28Jul 27, 03:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 24?$1.56Jul 27, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be 87°F or below on July 27?$1.04Jul 26, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 27?$2.04Jul 26, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or higher on July 27?$2.06Jul 26, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 27?$2.04Jul 26, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 27?$1.04Jul 26, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 27?$1.04Jul 26, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 27?$2.04Jul 26, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 27?$2.05Jul 25, 18:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $1.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 06:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.