Defiant-Lens
0x631354e1a60570dfa84ac3d728847919b77deb59
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$8.15
Total PnL
$-46.00
Realised
$-0.25
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
44 shares @ 9.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.78
$1.78
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
46 shares @ 6.5¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.37
$-0.63
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8?
7450 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-7.45
- YES
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
164 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.73
- YES
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League?
155 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.43
- YES
Google Gemini Parlay
63 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
50 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
48 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17?
45 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.67
- YES
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
34 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18?$1.62Feb 18, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?$1.62Feb 18, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17?$2.67Feb 17, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17?$2.67Feb 17, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17?$1.54Feb 17, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLChina x Japan military clash before 2027?$0.79Feb 17, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China blockade Taiwan by June 30?$0.75Feb 17, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8?$7.45Feb 6, 00:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$7.46Feb 6, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$3.08Jan 27, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLUS government shutdown Saturday?$3.08Jan 25, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?$4.00Jan 19, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$1.00Jan 18, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYGoogle Gemini Parlay$5.00Jan 18, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?$14.73Jan 18, 08:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Real Madrid CF vs. Levante UD end in a draw?$0.00Jan 18, 08:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17?$5.00Jan 17, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?$2.00Jan 17, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League?$1.00Jan 17, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$3.00Jan 17, 09:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $2.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 10, 20:38 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 18, 21:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.