OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Probability
19¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$6.00
Liquidity
$8.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $8.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.2h
- 14:45SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
3Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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