Insistent-Primate
0x633a82352233a4d76b87795349ad1f85c129844d
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
133
Open notional
$48.62
Total PnL
$-286.37
Realised
$-6.23
Win rate
5%
87 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 133- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on August 13?
3 shares @ 68.5¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$3.02
$0.84
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 12?
3 shares @ 76.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$2.78
$0.60
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
197 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.4¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$2.75
$0.49
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
4 shares @ 28.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$2.71
$1.57
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
7 shares @ 26.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$2.22
$0.50
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
3 shares @ 37.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$2.08
$0.92
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 14?
3 shares @ 68.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$1.75
$0.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 13?
42 shares @ 5.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$1.66
$-0.42
- YES
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.63
$-0.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 13?
11 shares @ 19.5¢·now 15.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$1.62
$-0.48
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?$1.15Aug 12, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.73Aug 12, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.67Aug 12, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 13?$3.23Aug 12, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 13?$3.77Aug 12, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 13?$3.87Aug 12, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 12?$3.54Aug 12, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$2.94Aug 12, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 12?$3.91Aug 12, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 12?$4.89Aug 12, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$5.30Aug 12, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 13?$5.56Aug 12, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on August 13?$5.73Aug 12, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on August 12?$4.51Aug 12, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 13?$7.34Aug 12, 17:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$7.50Aug 12, 17:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$19.04Aug 12, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 14?$1.78Aug 12, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 13?$1.80Aug 12, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 13?$1.11Aug 12, 15:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 87 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
87 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 04:37 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 17:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 87 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.