Insidious-Maelstrom
0x63bd19ec92d98b4cebfb150df81b629a67b4aff2
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.46
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-30.82
Win rate
68%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?
156 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.79
$-0.08
- NO
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
2394 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.20
$-3.26
- YES
Will Rodri join Al-Hilal?
633 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$0.32
$-0.95
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026?
175 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.09
$-0.96
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in July 2026?
134 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.07
$-1.01
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
25108 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-69.57
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
9977 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-25.39
- YES
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
6077 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-53.27
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
5118 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-10.60
- NO
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?
4505 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-11.74
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$0.36Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?$0.83Jul 28, 15:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$7.48Jul 28, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$2.49Jul 28, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$2.80Jul 28, 14:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?$0.76Jul 28, 14:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.56Jul 28, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on July 31, 2026?$1.82Jul 28, 12:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$22.39Jul 28, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$1.16Jul 28, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$1.01Jul 28, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$1.16Jul 28, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 28, 2026?$2.11Jul 28, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$1.43Jul 28, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?$1.07Jul 28, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohamed Salah play in La Liga next?$0.38Jul 28, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?$1.14Jul 28, 04:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$21.47Jul 28, 04:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$1.20Jul 28, 04:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$0.48Jul 28, 04:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 11:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.