Mean-Daybed
0x63c31feaea55699a8b1a25b6c08443a322da2783
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$8.25
Total PnL
$-6.9K
Realised
$562.25
Win rate
46%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- YES
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
300 shares @ 11.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.25
$-24.75
- YES
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?
20056 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2025$0.00
$-536.75
- YES
Will Trump be impeached in 2025?
20000 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.7K
- YES
Will Victor Ponta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
9074 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-11.73
- YES
Trump removed via 25th Amendment in 2025?
5781 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-294.66
- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July?
5347 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-95.04
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
5000 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-69.00
- YES
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?
5000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Victor Ponta win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?
4830 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2025$0.00
$-152.99
- YES
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
4319 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-25.42
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 00:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.