Murky-Chow
0x6406102b2a67e987021169910c178ac8aa7dbc04
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$3.0K
Total PnL
$-349.82
Realised
$-178.25
Win rate
29%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- YES
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
995 shares @ 40.2¢·now 35.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$350.74
$-49.25
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
369 shares @ 69.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$252.48
$-1.84
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
472 shares @ 54.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$247.80
$-7.08
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
355 shares @ 65.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$232.34
$1.77
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
614 shares @ 41.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$199.66
$-52.22
- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
162 shares @ 78.1¢·now 78.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$126.44
$-0.08
- NO
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
200 shares @ 62.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$123.22
$-1.00
- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
123 shares @ 84.5¢·now 84.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$103.95
$-0.06
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
126 shares @ 77.9¢·now 77.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$97.47
$-0.69
- NO
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
128 shares @ 69.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$88.66
$0.63
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$29.11Jul 2, 23:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$4.95Jul 2, 22:31 UTC
- TRADESELLCuban regime falls in 2026?$24.64Jul 2, 22:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$79.48Jul 2, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.00Jul 2, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?$59.40Jul 2, 21:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$27.30Jul 2, 21:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.67Jul 2, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$2.13Jul 2, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$15.00Jul 2, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$47.00Jul 2, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$5.67Jul 2, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$6.36Jul 2, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$84.50Jul 2, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$24.40Jul 2, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$33.03Jul 2, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?$12.48Jul 2, 20:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$59.00Jul 2, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$61.60Jul 2, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$3.88Jul 2, 19:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $41.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 17:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 23:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.