Musty-Viola
0x64739b72524fcdcc70979decd9c4d9863ace43ee
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-32.60
Realised
$93.61
Win rate
5%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 6?
310 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-0.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 5?
250 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 2?
238 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-3.46
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?
137 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-6.86
- YES
Will July 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
96 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.57
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 6?
63 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 6?
55 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 2?
51 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-0.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 97°F or below on July 2?
45 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 6?
38 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.73
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?$5.00Aug 20, 14:06 UTC
- REDEEMIran full airspace closure by August 15?$7.44Aug 20, 14:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?$12.82Aug 20, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$2.00Aug 9, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?$1.00Aug 8, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?$5.86Aug 8, 21:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$9.15Aug 8, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$1.00Aug 5, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$6.77Aug 4, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$6.91Aug 4, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$6.92Aug 4, 12:28 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$6.31Aug 3, 14:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?$9.31Aug 3, 14:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$8.53Aug 3, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$3.49Aug 1, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$1.00Aug 1, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?$6.69Aug 1, 18:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$3.08Aug 1, 16:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.16Aug 1, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?$6.56Aug 1, 14:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
38 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $4.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 23:52 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 14:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.