Lined-Scorpion
0x64a993aa3e789e000e690f7beb8e28d113627311
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
141
Open notional
$189.02
Total PnL
$-3.2K
Realised
$110.74
Win rate
40%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 141- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
752 shares @ 10.4¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$52.94
$-25.06
- YES
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?
111 shares @ 36.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$51.67
$11.67
- YES
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
380 shares @ 21.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$28.53
$-51.47
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?
556 shares @ 18.0¢·now 3.4¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$18.90
$-81.10
- YES
Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?
1000 shares @ 1.8¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$16.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
89 shares @ 56.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$12.05
$-37.95
- YES
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 17, 2026?
216 shares @ 4.6¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$4.97
$-5.03
- YES
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?
41 shares @ 49.1¢·now 5.1¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$2.05
$-17.95
- NO
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 2.6¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$1.30
$-23.70
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.11
$-0.89
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran invades Kuwait by July 31?$18.00Jul 21, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?$40.00Jul 20, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$60.00Jul 20, 13:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$197.20Jul 20, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$18.00Jul 20, 13:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.89Jul 20, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$40.80Jul 19, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$67.65Jul 19, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.04Jul 19, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina?$41.70Jul 19, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Argentina?$20.94Jul 19, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump be shown 9-11 times at the World Cup Final?$10.48Jul 19, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain to score first vs. Argentina?$51.22Jul 19, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half$61.95Jul 19, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Shakira" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?$40.82Jul 19, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?$20.85Jul 19, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?$47.07Jul 19, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump be shown 6-8 times at the World Cup Final?$10.43Jul 19, 19:16 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. England: Team to Win$255.36Jul 18, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLEngland to win the second half?$1.02Jul 18, 22:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $47.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 16:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 15:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.