Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60?
Probability
99¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.8pp
24h Vol
$170.34
Liquidity
$1.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 99¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Price is not settlement
requiredVerify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.
Current evidence: 99¢ current price
Orrery verification task Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? State: Pinned near YES — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Nov 19, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 3585.6h
Price movement
+1.8pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.
Biggest hourly move: +47.2pp at Jun 22, 06:00 UTC (to 97¢).
Show top 8 of 22 hourly moves
- 00:00 · +26.4pp → 99¢
- 23:00 · +26.4pp → 99¢
- 21:00 · +24.0pp → 99¢
- 20:00 · +23.9pp → 99¢
- 19:00 · +23.4pp → 98¢
- 17:00 · +22.5pp → 98¢
- Jun 22, 08:00 UTC · +22.6pp → 97¢
- Jun 22, 06:00 UTC · +47.2pp → 97¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
2Market Description
Grand Theft Auto VI is currently scheduled to be released for the PlayStation 5 console on November 19, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US launch price of the base version of Grand Theft Auto VI for the PlayStation 5 is greater than or equal to the specified price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the advertised price. Any additional sales or consumption tax, if not included in the advertised price, will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve based on the base version of the game, excluding any optional add-ons. This market will resolve solely based on the price for the PlayStation 5 console. The price available on any other console will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the first price available to consumers upon general launch of the game. The game will be considered launched when it is publicly available for download or retail purchase. Any preorder, invite-only, couponed, or closed offering price will not be considered. Any later revisions to the launch price will not be considered. If the GTA VI launch price differs based on region of the US, this market will consider the lowest advertised price at launch. If GTA VI is not launched for the PlayStation 5, or is not available as a standalone purchase (e.g. exclusively accessed as part of a subscription), by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the PlayStation US online store (https://www.playstation.com/en-us/games/). If no price is available on the PlayStation US online store, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
gta viReason
Grand Theft Auto VI release-date markets are Entertainment / gaming, not Unclassified.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60?"?
As of Tue, 23 Jun 2026 14:24:01 GMT, YES is priced at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.8pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 19, 2026 (2026-11-19T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$170.34 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $403.02. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.5¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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