Reasonable-Waterskiing
0x64fd3f0a8939e30c08132e174e4197531f90f7ae
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
105
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-3.8K
Realised
$-15.89
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 105- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1532 shares @ 18.1¢·now 19.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$302.57
$25.12
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1532 shares @ 16.7¢·now 13.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$212.18
$-43.90
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1532 shares @ 11.4¢·now 12.6¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$192.27
$18.10
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1532 shares @ 8.6¢·now 11.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$180.01
$48.58
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1532 shares @ 8.5¢·now 6.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$101.88
$-27.94
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1532 shares @ 9.0¢·now 5.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$88.09
$-50.11
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1532 shares @ 5.3¢·now 5.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$81.96
$1.33
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1092 shares @ 3.7¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$60.61
$20.20
- YES
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1092 shares @ 2.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$12.56
$-9.28
- YES
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1092 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$7.10
$-6.01
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.11Jun 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jun 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 8, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.11Jun 3, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
14 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $46.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 22:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.