Elderly-Bug-Degree
0x653448e65e4bb1c4367c028f5756df9e8e032e43
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$4.92
Total PnL
$-173.78
Realised
$12.81
Win rate
100%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Alexandra Van Cleef be the Republican nominee for FL-06?
764 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.15
$0.38
- YES
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1001 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Japan?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland?
923 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.46
$-0.46
- YES
Will JP Hurlbert be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?
700 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.35
$-0.35
- YES
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine?
608 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.30
$-0.30
- YES
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea?
470 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.23
$-0.24
- YES
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
438 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.22
$-0.22
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 26?$1.00May 25, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 26?$0.07May 25, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 26?$0.05May 25, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 26?$0.10May 25, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 26?$0.10May 25, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 26?$0.10May 25, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 26?$0.09May 25, 05:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$0.96May 25, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.00May 25, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Evan Mobley win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP?$0.01May 25, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$1.00May 25, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?$0.41May 25, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?$0.01May 25, 01:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$0.96May 25, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Luzardo win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?$0.01May 25, 00:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1.97May 25, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.00May 24, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steven Gerrard be the next manager of Manchester City FC?$0.01May 24, 22:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1.00May 24, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$0.18May 19, 18:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 09:58 UTC
- Last active
- May 25, 06:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.