Ill-Parameter
0x657021f819bd32e6e3fd4a49a8a20f669979d496
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
1
Open notional
$36.98
Total PnL
$0.02
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$36.96Jul 11, 02:20 UTC
- REDEEMXi Jinping out by June 30?$95.99Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out by June 30?$95.80Jun 15, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast hit 488 million subscribers by June 30?$108.00May 22, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 488 million subscribers by June 30?$107.90May 14, 16:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$44.00May 11, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$43.52Apr 24, 06:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?$128.00Mar 30, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?$127.87Mar 24, 02:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?$45.33Mar 24, 02:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 11?$47.60Mar 15, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?$32.92Mar 11, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?$1.00Mar 11, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 11?$47.55Mar 11, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?$10.87Mar 11, 06:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?$13.01Mar 11, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?$195.07Mar 11, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?$194.68Feb 21, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?$13.00Feb 21, 03:24 UTC
- REDEEMZama FDV above $3B one day after launch?$60.00Feb 5, 07:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $56.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 9, 03:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 02:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.