Chief-Deviation
0x6823cf43838e8087e367519f6897336b4e3a077c
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$17.98
Total PnL
$-161.02
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
18 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$17.98
$1.98
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
156 shares @ 96.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-150.00
- YES
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
21 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?$16.07Jun 11, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$150.00Jun 11, 01:45 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$166.67Jun 11, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$160.00Jun 3, 08:04 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$11.11Jun 3, 08:04 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$148.86Jun 3, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$131.00May 28, 02:24 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?$130.43May 28, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?$10.00May 25, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?$120.00May 25, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$23.08May 25, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$38.89May 25, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?$13.20May 14, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$21.39May 14, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$21.08May 14, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another outcome occur in the the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections?$14.24May 14, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?$32.56May 14, 05:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $160 in April?$17.99May 14, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another outcome occur in the the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections?$14.30Apr 13, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $160 in April?$17.91Apr 10, 09:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $489.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 2, 06:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 11, 01:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.