Probable-Plum
0x697330e0e34cdf3af544129107c79558e225fded
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-24.5K
Realised
$-175.57
Win rate
32%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
12415 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-544.98
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
3026 shares @ 30.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-921.58
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
2430 shares @ 47.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
1800 shares @ 65.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- YES
Will England win on 2026-07-15?
1300 shares @ 59.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-767.74
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
1050 shares @ 83.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-873.01
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
900 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-85.04
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
810 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-291.59
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
800 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
800 shares @ 70.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-566.04
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$3.45Jul 23, 00:45 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$20.37Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$209.30Jul 22, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$186.87Jul 22, 20:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$41.53Jul 22, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$4.21Jul 22, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$15.79Jul 22, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$4.00Jul 22, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$16.00Jul 22, 20:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$36.33Jul 22, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$42.00Jul 22, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$48.75Jul 22, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$78.26Jul 22, 20:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$440.00Jul 22, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$213.85Jul 22, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$205.60Jul 22, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$185.04Jul 22, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$149.60Jul 22, 19:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$227.84Jul 22, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$126.99Jul 22, 19:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
32% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $81.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 15:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.