Sarcastic-Canteen-Feeding
0x69a037d1c61785cc12d804f9a419c1a83cff590c
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$200.59
Total PnL
$38.43
Realised
$25.08
Win rate
88%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
170 shares @ 2.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$169.99
$165.00
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
19 shares @ 22.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$19.00
$14.82
- YES
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
39 shares @ 6.4¢·now 12.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$4.78
$2.28
- KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
3 shares @ 33.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$2.94
$1.97
- YES
Will AEK win on 2026-04-16?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$1.97
$0.98
- YES
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
966 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.48
$-3.38
- NO
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
14 shares @ 16.5¢·now 3.4¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.47
$-1.84
- YES
Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
245 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$0.37
$-0.86
- YES
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
207 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.31
$-0.72
- YES
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?
19 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.14
$-2.14
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 1, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.