Wallet digest

profitable

Activity score

85/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$7.3K

Total PnL

$373.37

Realised

$382.53

Win rate

60%

5 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 19

NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5000 shares @ 82.5¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$4.0K
$-127.50
YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5000 shares @ 17.6¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$1.0K
$122.50
NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
600 shares @ 91.7¢·now 95.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$571.20
$21.00
NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
300 shares @ 88.7¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$286.81
$20.70
NO
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
344 shares @ 81.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$266.32
$-12.03
YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
500 shares @ 50.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026
$217.50
$-32.50
NO
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
200 shares @ 77.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$148.00
$-6.00
NO
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
150 shares @ 88.1¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$145.57
$13.42
YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
100 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$100.00
$15.00
YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
500 shares @ 24.0¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$96.75
$-23.25

Recent activity

YIELD$0.52Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.53Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.53Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.53Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.53Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.53Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.52Jul 9, 00:10 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

16/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

60% win rate over 5 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

review

1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity36 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence17 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry21 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk74 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 1
Avg trade size: $320.76
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 11, 00:45 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
Win rate sample: 5 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 22:15:20 UTC·src:Polymarket Data