Trump declares election interference national emergency?
Probability
36¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+15.5pp
24h Vol
$1.3K
Liquidity
$36.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+16.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Up 16pp over 24h
Now 36¢; flat in the last hour.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 31¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5978.0h
Price movement
+15.0pp over the last 24h, now 36¢.
Biggest hourly move: +20.5pp at 08:00 (to 42¢).
Show top 8 of 50 hourly moves
- 22:00 · +15.5pp → 36¢
- 21:00 · +15.5pp → 36¢
- 20:00 · +15.5pp → 36¢
- 17:00 · +15.5pp → 36¢
- 13:00 · +16.0pp → 37¢
- 12:00 · +16.5pp → 37¢
- 09:00 · +20.5pp → 42¢
- 08:00 · +20.5pp → 42¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryWhite HouseTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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