Watery-Database
0x6a2ca036957c0c6aa31f8a58d78561feb8a864f0
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$531.59
Total PnL
$-589.40
Realised
$-0.79
Win rate
81%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- NO
Will Hurupay launch a token by June 30, 2027?
60 shares @ 75.3¢·now 59.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$35.40
$-9.80
- NO
Will Lorenzo Pazolini win the Governor of Espírito Santo election?
49 shares @ 71.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$29.91
$-4.62
- NO
Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?
50 shares @ 62.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Sep 23, 2028$29.50
$-1.50
- YES
Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before 2027?
149 shares @ 44.7¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$25.30
$-41.20
- NO
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
50 shares @ 55.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Oct 17, 2026$24.25
$-3.25
- NO
Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
30 shares @ 79.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2028$22.35
$-1.35
- NO
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
40 shares @ 65.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$22.20
$-3.80
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
100 shares @ 41.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$21.59
$-19.58
- YES
Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?
50 shares @ 50.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$17.24
$-7.75
- NO
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
50 shares @ 57.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$16.75
$-11.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?$7.18Jul 14, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?$12.60Jul 14, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$12.68Jul 14, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?$11.00Jul 14, 09:20 UTC
- TRADESELLUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?$15.80Jul 14, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$15.50Jul 14, 02:19 UTC
- REWARD$9.79Jul 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Cuba" or "Cuban" this week?$0.02Jul 13, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?$25.50Jul 13, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?$7.20Jul 13, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?$10.50Jul 13, 20:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$19.24Jul 13, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?$0.53Jul 13, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Cuba" or "Cuban" this week?$12.70Jul 13, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?$11.00Jul 13, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$13.60Jul 13, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Cuba" or "Cuban" this week?$16.20Jul 13, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$13.40Jul 13, 08:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$1.85Jul 13, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$3.35Jul 13, 04:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $12.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 22:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 19:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.