PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Aug 14, 2028

Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?

Probability

17¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+6.5pp

24h Vol

$22.77

Liquidity

$25.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 20:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:00
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Up 7pp over 24h

    Now 17¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved up 6.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover.

  3. 3

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 20189h with open resolution ambiguity.

  4. 4

    Wide spread — 28.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 20189.0h

    LOW
  • 19:01Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 6.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover.

    MEDIUM
  • 19:01Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 20189h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+6.5pp over the last 24h, now 17¢.

Biggest hourly move: -15.5pp at 1d ago (to 9¢).

Show all 31 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 19:00 · -3.5pp → 17¢
  • 17:00 · -6.5pp → 12¢
  • 12:00 · +4.0pp → 17¢
  • 11:00 · -5.5pp → 17¢
  • 09:00 · -5.0pp → 17¢
  • 08:00 · -3.0pp → 18¢
  • 07:00 · -3.5pp → 17¢
  • 05:00 · -3.5pp → 18¢
  • 03:00 · -4.0pp → 18¢
  • 00:00 · -3.0pp → 17¢
  • 23:00 · -3.5pp → 17¢
  • 20:00 · -3.0pp → 19¢
  • 1d ago · -12.5pp → 11¢
  • 1d ago · -12.5pp → 11¢
  • 1d ago · -15.5pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · -10.0pp → 11¢
  • 1d ago · -4.0pp → 18¢
  • 1d ago · -4.0pp → 18¢
  • 1d ago · -4.0pp → 18¢
  • 2d ago · -5.0pp → 18¢
  • 2d ago · -12.0pp → 11¢
  • 2d ago · -9.0pp → 14¢
  • 2d ago · -7.5pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -10.5pp → 13¢
  • 2d ago · -6.0pp → 18¢
  • 2d ago · -6.0pp → 18¢
  • 2d ago · -7.5pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · -3.5pp → 21¢
  • 2d ago · -8.0pp → 18¢
  • 2d ago · -9.0pp → 18¢
  • 2d ago · -9.0pp → 18¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventRepublican VP Nominee 2028
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Aug 14, 2028
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
gop.com
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (28.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

13 wallets
Open on Polymarket