Unlucky-Mezzanine
0x6a2f0438131fb53ade99442ead13558eece87105
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$12.32
Realised
$53.98
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
900 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$899.55
$1.35
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 95.3¢·now 95.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$380.40
$-0.80
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026?
300 shares @ 96.8¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$292.35
$1.95
- YES
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?
51 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$50.57
$0.20
- NO
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?
50 shares @ 51.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$34.00
$8.50
- NO
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
100 shares @ 48.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.50
$-23.50
- NO
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated?
5 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.07
$0.03
- YES
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?
1750 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.87
$-0.89
- YES
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?
631 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.32
$-24.81
- NO
Will Atalanta qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
5 shares @ 4.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.06
$-0.14
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYPeru Presidential Election Invalidated?$5.05Jul 2, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?$33.28Jul 2, 19:40 UTC
- TRADESELLPuffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?$38.56Jul 2, 16:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?$162.92Jul 2, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYPuffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?$18.91Jul 2, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYPuffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?$25.50Jul 2, 06:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 2, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$2.0KJul 1, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$83.91Jul 1, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$99.80Jul 1, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$215.49Jul 1, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$283.51Jul 1, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$99.80Jul 1, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$99.80Jul 1, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$15.89Jul 1, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?$381.20Jul 1, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?$1.00Jul 1, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?$50.36Jul 1, 01:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 1, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $182.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 16:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.