Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?
Probability
21¢
1h
+4.5pp
24h
+12.0pp
24h Vol
$732.09
Liquidity
$7.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 12pp over 24h
Now 21¢; +4.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1564h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1564.3h
- 19:44SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1564h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+11.5pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.
Biggest hourly move: +9.0pp at 11:00 (to 19¢).
Show all 28 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · +6.0pp → 16¢
- 17:00 · +9.0pp → 19¢
- 15:00 · +7.5pp → 18¢
- 14:00 · +9.0pp → 19¢
- 12:00 · +9.0pp → 19¢
- 11:00 · +9.0pp → 19¢
- 09:00 · +7.5pp → 19¢
- 08:00 · +7.5pp → 19¢
- 06:00 · +6.0pp → 18¢
- 05:00 · +6.0pp → 18¢
- 03:00 · +5.5pp → 17¢
- 02:00 · +5.5pp → 17¢
- 00:00 · +5.5pp → 17¢
- 23:00 · +3.5pp → 15¢
- 21:00 · -3.0pp → 9¢
- 20:00 · -3.0pp → 9¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 9¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -8.0pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -8.5pp → 9¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
7- 0¢-0.1pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $650.5K
- 3¢+0.9pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $564.9K
- 5¢0.0pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $529.3K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $339.7K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $333.2K
- 1¢+0.1pp
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $314.9K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aleksandar Vučić ceases to be the President of Serbia for any period of time between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Aleksandar Vučić's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.